Agriculture in Nepal and the Effects of Climate Change

The agriculture sector contributes nearly 33% of Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and supports the livelihoods of more than 86% of the population. Most of the Nepalese population depends on agriculture for its livelihood, which is based on a rich diversity of useful species. Of the more than 6,000 vascular plant species found in Nepal, about 550 species and subspecies have food value and some 200 are cultivated. The diversity of livestock (both improved and indigenous breeds) also plays a major role in contributing to the well-being of rural communities. The diversity can be illustrated even for staple cereal crops where in different production zones and conditions rice, wheat, barley, maize, finger millet and buckwheat are all important grain staples.

The Global Climate Model (GCM) projections indicate a potential increase in temperature over Nepal of 0.5- 2.0 ̊C with a multimodal mean of 1.4 ̊C by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 ̊C with a multimodal mean of 4.7 ̊C, by the 2090s. For precipitation GCMs project a wide range of changes, especially in monsoon: -14 to 40 % by the 2030s increasing -52 to +135 % by the 2090s. This projection suggests that Nepal’s agriculture will face many challenges over the coming decades due to climate related variability. Existing problems such as soil degradation and increasingly limited water resources are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, increasing the difficulty of achieving food security for the growing population. The recently observed extreme severe weather events between 2006-09 including droughts and floods have significantly affected food production in Nepal. In addition, it has been suggested that warming of more than 2.5°C could reduce global food supplies and contribute to higher food prices.

It is likely that climate change and increasing variability will have both negative and positive impacts on the subsistence farming systems in different production systems. However, the combined effects of increasing CO2 levels, rising temperatures and changing moisture availability are likely to be complex and are still largely uncertain.

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